UFC Fight Night predictions, picks, parlay tonight

The UFC returns to Vegas after an extremely entertaining card in Austin, Texas.

This weekend is one of the best for betting on MMA. Between UFC on Saturday and PFL and Bellator fights on Friday, we have 38 fights that we can bet on.

That volume of fights in a 24-hour period is something that is a treat for all mixed martial arts fans. With that, we will be breaking down the UFC fights tonight.

Hopefully, Saturday is a fruitful endeavor for all who are partaking.

Arman Tsarukyan (-300) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+240)

Very rarely do we see top prospects face off so early in their careers but that is exactly what we have between Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. These two fighters are a combined 38-3 in their MMA careers – both are incredibly high-level fighters and we are in for a treat.

They are also master grapplers who headline tonight’s main card. This could be a spot where the grappling is so top-tier that neither fighter even tries to wrestle.

Arman Tsarukyan
Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Tsarukyan is a winner of five straight with his last loss coming to current No. 1 UFC lightweight, Islam Makhachev. Even that fight was very competitive and it is entirely possible that Tsarukyan is a future title holder in the 155-lb division.

Last time out against Joel Alvarez, he made it look like Alvarez didn’t even deserve to be in there with him en route to a TKO victory.

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Gamrot is 20-1 in his career and 3-1 in the UFC with three finishes. He absolutely ran through UFC-veteran Jeremy Stephens in 65 seconds. He is a seriously impressive athlete with wild wrestling scrambles that even the best grapplers struggle to get away from.

Gamrot as this big of an underdog is very interesting because his grappling should be on par with Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan has better kicks than Gamrot and has the power edge. However, without Tsarukyan’s feints setting his striking up, it could level things off in terms of his ability to control the octagon.

For reference, this line opened at -140/+120. The value is on Gamrot this weekend in a five-round battle. Neither fighter will get tired and both have phenomenal durability.

Expect this fight to be an extremely competitive bout without a clear pick to actually win the fight. The competition could be a stalemate that goes to a decision with slight value to Gamrot who shouldn’t be higher than +165.

UFC Fight Night picks

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Neil Magny (+300) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-420)

Neil Magny will fight another budding prospect in Shavkat Rakhomov in the UFC welterweight division. Rakhmonov has just dominated the competition up until this point.

His 15-0 record features eight wins by KO/TKO and seven submissions. Magny will be easily his most difficult opponent to date. It is also the first time Rakhmonov will be undersized in UFC career.

Typically, he uses his 6-foot-1 frame and length to control the cage. His push kicks and front jab typically get his opponent onto their back leg. This is a great setup that gives him total control of fights. From here he can land heavy strikes that could result in knockouts or desperation takedown attempts.

Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov
Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov face off at weigh-ins.
Zuffa LLC

This fight will be very difficult to implement that style against Magny. He loves fighting in the clinch and is difficult to takedown. Once he is taken down, he has been submitted by four opponents in his career each by choke.

That is the only bet that there is true value for. A takedown attempt from Magny, followed by a scramble with Rakhmonov ending on top, heavy ground and pound and a submission.

Rakhmonov will likely be facing the best striker he has faced yet in his career. His kicks are excellent but against the 6-foot-3 Magny, it’s harder to envision another head-kick KO.

For more risky bettors, a submission win in rounds two or three for Rakhmonov is paying 11/1 on FanDuel.

UFC Fight Night picks

  • Rakhmonov wins by submission +420 (FanDuel)

UFC Fight Night parlay today

As usual, these parlay odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at the time of writing.

TJ Brown -194 + Thiago Moises -265 + Tafon Nchuwki -128 + Paiva/Morozov GTD (-142) = +533 odds

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