Top 2023 Super Bowl prop bets: Who will win MVP?

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts stretches during a team practice session on Wednesday.

(Matt York / Associated Press)

Super Bowl MVP: History tells us this is a quarterback-driven award, though recent history tells us there has been more variety. Cooper Kupp’s Super Bowl LVI MVP was the second one in four years to go to a wide receiver and the fourth one in the last nine Super Bowls to go to someone other than a quarterback. Two defensive players — Von Miller and Malcolm Smith — also have been victorious.

The quarterbacks who won in the last nine years have been Tom Brady (three times), Patrick Mahomes and Nick Foles. Mahomes is vying for his second one and has moved into the favorite for the award at +120, even though his team is an underdog. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is second at +125, while all of the other players are predominantly +1000 or higher.

If you like the Chiefs to win, there aren’t a lot of scenarios in which Mahomes isn’t the MVP, especially with some easy headlines to write about his achievement. He would be the first QB since 1999 (Kurt Warner) to win regular season and Super Bowl MVP. He’s also performing at a high level while injured. You can get Mahomes around +120 or +125 instead of taking the Chiefs at +105 for more profit potential, though there is a chance Kansas City wins and Mahomes is not MVP.

Many will look at Travis Kelce at anywhere from +1000 to +1200. A tight end never has won the award. Some may look at Miles Sanders at +2200 with the run-heavy Eagles, but a running back hasn’t won the award since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII way back in 1998.

With the exception of Miller in Super Bowl 50, most of the defensive players to win the award over the last 35 years have been guys with interceptions, so consider any long-shot defensive player like a C.J. Gardner-Johnson at +20000 or a L’Jarius Sneed at +15000.

Travis Kelce: The Eagles are going to spread the ball around, but the Chiefs may not have that luxury. Kelce is going to be the focal point of the Kansas City offense and he is the most popular player in terms of “Anytime TD” and “First TD” props. His receptions prop of 6.5 is two catches higher than any other player in the game and his receiving yards prop of 78.5 is also clearly the highest.

Kelce’s two previous Super Bowl appearances could not have been more different. He had six catches for 43 yards and a touchdown when the Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV and 10 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown when the Chiefs lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LVI.

Through two games this postseason, Kelce has 21 catches on 25 targets for 176 yards and three touchdowns. He’s caught 15 touchdowns in 17 playoff games for the Chiefs and has had a touchdown in eight of his last nine playoff games, so you can see why he’s popular.

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