The New York Giants and QB Daniel Jones are off a loss to San Francisco as they prepare to tackle … [+]
The New York Giants get a shot at prime time redemption on Monday Night Football when they host the Seattle Seahawks to conclude Week 4. The Giants (1-2) were a slight favorite during the week leading up to the Sunday games, but are now a home underdog to the Seahawks (2-1) as a national TV audience tunes into ABC for the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff from MetLife Stadium.
The game total has been bet up to 47.5 at leading online sportsbooks, despite the early season trend showing NFL night games are 4-9 over/under this season after the Chiefs held off the Jets 23-20 on Oct. 1 Sunday Night Football.
Playing the percentages and odds, the Giants could really use a win Monday Night. Since 1990, teams that started 2-2 made the playoffs 37.1% of the time (118 of 318). But those that were 1-3 advanced to the postseason at a rate of just 14.5% (34 of 235).
Beyond the moneyline odds, spread and over/under bets, fans and bettors will be adding many prop bets on the players and game.
Some popular player props offerered at FanDuel Sportsbook include:
- Giants QB Daniel Jones – Over/Under 220.5 passing yards
- Daniel Jones – O/U 35.5 rushing yards
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith – O/U 249.5 passing yards
- Giants RB Matt Breida – O/U 44.5 rushing yards
- Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III – O/U 64.5 rushing yards
- Giants WR Darius Slayton – O/U 38.5 receiving yards
- Giants TE Darren Waller – O/U 48.5 receiving yards
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf – O/U 64.5 yards
- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett – O/U 52.5
This no touchdown prop parlay bet hit for more than $8,000 on a $25 bet Sunday. New York fans are hoping the Giants don’t fall victim to another no TD performance.
NFL Parlay No TD’s scored
The Giants need a bigger effort following the embarrasing 40-0 home loss to Dallas in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football. The Week 3 loss on Thursday Night Football was also a one-sided affair in a 30-12 loss at San Francisco. The Giants offense generated less than 175 total yards in each of those contests. In Week 2, New York trailed at Arizona 28-7 in the third quarter before the unexpected rally and win, 31-28.
Seattle is 5-0 at MetLife Stadium
Still, the Giants are buring their betting backers at 0-3 against the spread (ATS). A loss to Seattle will leave New York as the only team in the NFL at 0-4 ATS this season.
But New York is reaping the fiscal benefits of legalized sports betting, and has soared past the $1 billion mark in taxes collected. DraftKings and New York-based FanDuel dominate the market in bets, handle (money) and sports betting revenue.
Seattle at New York
A key to victory for New York will be to slow the Seahawks running game. The Giants rank near the bottom again this season in run defense allowing 138 rushing yards per game but near league-average at 4.2 yards per rush against. The Seahawks run defense has been solid and top 5 in the league allowing just 79 rushing yards per game at 2.9 yards per rush.
The Giants offense is 30th in the NFL in yards (253.3) and 31st in points (14.3) per game. The defense ranks 24th in yards allowed per game (361.7) and 30th in points (32.7, though 14 points in the opener were scored by Dallas’ defense and special teams).
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith and RB Kenneth Walker III lead the Seahawks offense into Monday Night … [+]
Here is additional insight, advanced stats and analytics from respected handicapper Bob Stoll, who provides weekly NFL game analysis at Dr. Bob Sports. He also supports the Giants over the Seahawks.
- New York QB Daniel Jones has been under pressure on a league-high 47% of his dropbacks this season. Jones averaged 2.6 yards per pass play (YPPL) against the Cowboys and 49ers, but 7.8 YPPP against the Cardinals. Jones can operate effectively unless he is across from an elite pass rush like Dallas or SF, and Seattle’s defense has just a 3.7% sack rate (29th).
- Jones will be getting reinforcements along his offensive line, but NY will also be using their fourth different offensive line combination vs Seattle. Giants backup guard Mark Glowinski has surrendered a league-high 3 sacks, but starter Ben Bredeson will be back in uniform this week to limit interior defender Mario Edwards, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency.
- New York’s offensive line will also get back LT Andrew Thomas, who ranked 8th in pass-blocking efficiency last season. But RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) remains out and is listed as doubtful to play.
- The Seahawks are surrendering a league-high 10.4 yards per target to tight ends, and they will not be able to contain TE Darren Waller, who has a 55% success rate when targeted.
- Giants nose tackle Dexter Lawrence has 13 pressures (3rd) and interior defender Leonard Williams ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency. Seattle LG Damien Lewis has surrendered a 12.5% pressure rate on true pass-blocking sets this season and will not hold up against New York’s interior pressure.
- Seahawks QB Geno Smith will be under more pressure as starting LT Charles Cross (toe) is doubtful and will miss his third consecutive game. Also, RT Abraham Lucas (IR) is out until mid October. Backup right tackle Jake Curhan ranks 4th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency out of 62 qualifiers.
- Our model favors the Giants by 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 46.8 points, and Seattle applies to a 27-80-2 ATS road letdown situation.
Also, Playbook Sports hit all three of their NFL newsletter best bets Sunday, and they also like the Giants. The Seahawks have allowed at least 27 points in each of their first three games. A betting angle supporting New York shows the Giants are on a 7-1 ATS run when coming off a loss and 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest.
New York bettors cashed in on the Jets as underdog Sunday Night, and are betting on a Giants victory Monday night.
You can bet on it.
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