Week in Review
- China equities ended a mostly negative week lower as economic and corporate developments gave markets no clear direction.
- China’s CPI release for July indicated slight deflation while China earnings releases this week were largely positive.
- The disparity between foreign and local investors in China intensified this week. Mainland investors bought a net $1.8 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks while foreign investors sold a net $3.2 billion worth of Mainland stocks.
- On Thursday, Alibaba announced a revenue increase of +14% year-over-year in the second quarter to RMB 234 billion versus an expected RMB 224 billion.
Friday’s Key News
Asian equities were mixed but mostly lower overnight as Mainland China underperformed, and Japan was closed.
Internet stocks were mostly lower overnight after a strong move yesterday. However, Alibaba gained +1%, continuing momentum from positive earnings yesterday. Internet earnings continue next week with Trip.com reporting on Monday and JD.com and Tencent reporting on Wednesday. I would brace for positive surprises after Alibaba’s.
MSCI completed its quarterly index review process. Two China A shares (Mainland-listed) names were in the top three largest additions to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index: CNPC Capital and Gongniu Group. Meanwhile, there will be 10 additions and 50 deletions from the MSCI China A Onshore Index and 21 additions and 21 deletions from the MSCI China All Shares Index.
Developer weakness drove Hong Kong somewhat lower overnight as Country Garden heads for a restructuring. According to reports, the developer may book a loss of $6 to $7 billion. Policymakers held a meeting with multiple developers, but Country Garden was reportedly left out. While the government is apt to support real estate demand, supply-side support might continue to be weak.
The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech indexes both closed lower by -0.90% and -2.39%, respectively, on volume that increased +19% from yesterday. Short sale turnover also increased by 41%, likely due to internet weakness. Mainland investors bought a net $916 million worth of Hong Kong stocks overnight, capping off a strong week of net inflows. Real estate was the worst performer in Hong Kong overnight while telecoms and energy were among the top-performing industries.
Shanghai, Shenzhen, and the STAR Board all closed lower by -2.01%, -1.92%, and -2.13%, respectively, on volume that increased +11% from yesterday. Foreign investors bought a net $226 million worth of Mainland stocks overnight, the first net inflow day of the week.
Last Night’s Performance
Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 7.23 versus 7.22 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 7.93 versus 7.93 yesterday
- Yield on 1-Day Government Bond 1.35% versus 1.35% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 2.65% versus 2.65% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 2.75% versus 2.75% yesterday
- Copper Price -0.67% overnight
- Steel Price +0.25% overnight
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