BELIEVE IN BERRIOS?: It’s never going to be safer than it is against Baltimore

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There’s reason to believe in Jose Berrios when the inconsistent right-hander tries to help the Blue Jays to a win tonight over the Orioles that could clinch for Toronto the top wild card spot in the American League and with it, hosting rights to a best-of-three post-season series on the weekend.

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It has to do with Berrios being very consistent against Baltimore.

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Over a seven-season major league career that saw him spend the first 5 1/2 years in Minnesota, Berrios has never lost to the Orioles.

In 11 starts he is a perfect 8-0, with a 3.04 ERA, one complete game, 62 strikeouts and 17 walks across 71 innings.

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Discounting the mid-season acquisition of Mitch White (who has pitched his way into the Toronto bullpen), Berrios (11-7, 5.37) has by far the hight ERAs in the Jays rotation, as well as one of the worst on the entire staff.

The only two wins he has recorded since Aug. 18 have been against Baltimore, one at Rogers Centre and the other at Camden Yards.

He went six innings and gave up just two earned runs in both.

Berrios has just one other victory, against the Yankees, dating back to July.

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As of 1:30 p.m. today, the best bet available on the Jays was -118 at Coolbet.

The over on Berrios strikeouts (4.5) can be found at +102 with UniBet, while the over on his outs recorded (17.5) is at -105 with BetMGM, which also has at -135 Berrios to record the win.

Props are also available for Berrios hits allowed, with the over (4.5) at -154 and the under at +106, both with Caesars Sportsbook.

The same book is offering Berrios earned runs (1.5) with a -179 on the over and a +120 on the under.

The Jays magic number at clinching the top wild card spot is two, which means a victory tonight and a Seattle loss to Detroit would do it.

– Don Brennan